PRINCETON, NJ -- The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.
The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
Every Republican vote is an essential vote.
This will be an election decided by turnout.
Even Democrats in the safest districts are now in close races.
Take Norm Dicks in Washington state.
See: Poll shows Cloud leads over Dicks
The most notable results in the poll came in the question that asked “If the election for the United States Congress were today and the candidates were Republican Doug Cloud and Democrat Norm Dicks, for whom would you vote?” The answer options were “definitely for Cloud, leaning for Cloud, definitely for Dicks, leaning for Dicks, and not sure”. Doug Cloud received a combined 609 votes for “definitely for” and “leaning for” while Dicks only received 558 for the 2 answers. 95 were still unsure.
Even Norm Dicks is in trouble.
Get every Republican that you know to the polls.
This time, it really matters.
This time, we could really win this.
[HT JCM at C2 - See post#218]