Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Osama Gives No Bump To Obama

See: Bin Laden Death Will Not Boost Obama: Expert

“The immediate reaction in the US notwithstanding, 'normal business' will soon be resumed in US politics. There will be no change on the fiscal/debt polarization and contrary to some commentators' reaction, definitely no election boost for Obama,” said Newton in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday.

Barbara Walters and many others in the media may think that the killing of Osama will boost Obama's re-election chances. There hopes are only a reflection of their fears. Obama is in so much trouble that they are desperate to grasp at anything.

There will be no lasting boost for Obama*. By election day, Osama will be all but forgotten.

The Democrats own the economy. The voters will be thinking about the lack of work and the rising price of gas and food when they think about Obama from now till election day. Osama will be an afterthought at most.

Obama, it's the economy, stupid.


* You can watch the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll as the numbers begin to show peoples opinion of the president in the days after the Osama killing. I expect a small bump, but one that is so small and temporary that it could easily be confused with noise. A week from now, Obama's numbers will be as bad as they are today, if not worse.

From the May 3rd Report
Daily updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were conducted before news was released about the death of Osama bin Laden. Thursday will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after that event. Results from the single night of data collected on Monday shows a modest improvement in the president’s Approval Index rating. However, there was no improvement in the president’s overall approval rating. Caution should always be used when interpreting a single night sample from a tracking poll.

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