Sunday, January 30, 2011

Revolution in Egypt

Mubarak is done.

He just has not quit yet. He will either quit on his own very soon, or he will receive some assistance from the Egyptian military. If Mubarak is very unlucky, the Military will let the mob have him.

The Police and the Military are essentially standing down.

See: Egyptians Defiant as Military Does Little to Quash Protests

CAIRO — President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt struggled to maintain a tenuous hold on power on Saturday as the police withdrew from the major cities and the military did nothing to hold back tens of thousands of demonstrators defying a curfew to call for an end to his nearly 30 years of authoritarian rule.

The Muslim Brotherhood will likely be a dominant force in the next Egyptian Government.

See: Egypt's Mubarak faces crisis, protest defies curfew

A senior figure in the Muslim Brotherhood, the banned Islamist group that has long seemed the strongest single force against Mubarak, said it backed ElBaradei as negotiator.

The Brotherhood has stayed in the background although several of its senior officials have been rounded up. The government has accused it of planning to exploit the protests.

Some of its leaders walked free from jails on Sunday.

The crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood is over. The Muslim Brotherhood will back ElBaradei.

Will ElBaradei be Egypt's next leader? Who and what will lead ElBaradei? What will become of Egypt? What is Qutbism and why is it important, particularly now?

Mubarak was not a good guy.

In politics on the world stage, you rarely have the opportunity, much less the luxury of choosing saints to make alliances with. All too often you have to choose between bad and worse.

Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak were not good guys. What has made them valuable to the West is that they both have kept Egypt a comparatively moderate and mostly secular nation in an area of the world that has been dominated by lunatics and theocrats.

Now that is about to change.

We live in interesting times.

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