Rossi 48% - Murray 47% in latest Rasmussen Poll

Rasmussen is calling it a tie. The margin of error in the poll is (+/-) 4. This will be an election decided by turn-out, and heavily dependent on an honest counting of the ballots.

See: Election 2010: Washington Senate - Washington Senate: Rossi (R), Murray (D) Tied

Republican Dino Rossi and incumbent Democrat Patty Murray are separated by a single point in the U.S. Senate race in Washington with less than a week until Election Day.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Rossi picking up 48% of the vote, while Murray draws support from 47%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided.

There is also the 50% ("Incumbent Rule") for the Murray camp to worry about. While undecided number of 2% is small it can be the deciding factor in this race. If the Incumbent rule holds in this case, Rossi will be Washington State's next Senator.

Of course, all of this pre-election polling is only a good indicator of how an honestly conducted count of the vote might look like. Rossi has had trouble with the state engaging in some very strange ballot counting practices before. in his 2004 gubernatorial campaign Rossi won the Governor's race in the first count and the second in a recount, only to lose it to a strange as all hell third count. The 2004 gubernatorial count strongly suggests that an honest counting of ballots can be problematic, if not downright Chicago-esque here in Washington State.

This will be an election to keep an eye on.

Washington State Senate Race Still Too Close To Call - Rossi Polling Ahead Of Murray

The Washington State Senate race is one of a handful of contests that could go either way.

See: Rasmussen Predicts GOP Gain of 55 in House

“Republicans should have 48 seats [after the elections next month], Democrats 47, and five seats could slide either way,” said Rasmussen in his banquet address at the Western Conservative Political Action Conference. He was referring to seats in five states in which the Senate race this year he considers too close to call: California, Illinois, Washington, West Virginia, and Nevada (or “that mudwrestling contest,” as Rasmussen described the race between Republican Sharron Angle and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid).

That is bad news for long time incumbent, Patty Murray. She has been in office since 1988. That is long time. A very long time. (Think back, way back, all the way back to when George Bush Sr. beat Michael Dukakis.)

[Update and Correction - Patty Murray won her US Senate seat in 1992, the same year that George Bush Senior lost to Bill Clinton, with Ross Perot making a mess on the fringe. I confused Patty Murray's first race for the state legislature, where she won a seat in the Washington State Senate.]

Rossi now leads in Rasmussen's October 8th report.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Washington shows Rossi with 49% of the vote, while Murray’s support stands at 46%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

What should especially worry Murray is the Incumbent 50% Rule. This rule says that if the incumbent polls bellow 50% in the poll closest to the election, the "undecideds" will over 80% of the time, break for the challenger. (Go Rossi!)

I can see November from my house.

$100 To Dino Rossi

I just sent the Dino Rossi campaign $100.00.

This is not something that I can really afford to do. It is also something that I could not afford to not do.

In our lives, we are often confronted with "put-up or shut-up" moments.

Now is one of those times.

The race is close. Rasmussen has called the Washington State Senate Race a toss up. Rasmussen is a competent polling company. Their work is good.

On the sidelines, there is very little that individual voters like you and I can do to help move our nation in the right direction. So much of what happens in the political sphere that will shape our future happens in political campaigns like Dino Rossi's.

We can help.

We can help a candidate like Dino Rossi take his message to the voters by sending him and his campaign a small amount of money. We can do this much. If we are serious about what we believe, we must do at least this much.

Dino Rossi has answered the call.

We must, in kind, answer it too.

Washington State Senate Race Now A Toss Up.

See: Election 2010: Washington Senate

Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray and Republican challenger Dino Rossi are back to a virtual tie in Washington’s race for U.S. Senate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Rossi picking up 48% support, while Murray earns 47% of the vote when leaners are included. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This race now moves back to a Toss-Up from Leans Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

We are about a month away from election day.

Washington State's Senate race will be decided on turn-out.

Can the Democrats get their people to the polls this November?

We shall see.

The Republicans are all fired up.

They will vote.

The Democrats . . .

Its not looking so good for the Democrats.

See: DC rally shows support for struggling Democrats

Organizers claimed they had as many participants as Beck's rally. But Saturday's crowds were less dense and didn't reach as far to the edges as they did during Beck's rally. The National Park Service stopped providing official crowd estimates in the 1990s.

In other words, the Democrat's rally was a flop.

Polls Forecast A Grim November For Democrats

See: Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen Reports (Monday, September 06, 2010)

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 48% of Likely Voters would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. The survey data was collected on the seven days ending Sunday, September 5, 2010.

This matches the largest advantage ever measured for the Republicans. Three weeks ago, the GOP also held a 12-point lead.

Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year. During 2010, the GOP edge has never fallen below five points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.

Those are some pretty grim numbers for the Democrats. This November is looking like it will be a bloodbath at the ballot box.

Two years ago, the Democrats had won everything. Now, as the chill of the approaching autumn can be felt in the evening air, the Democrats find themselves about to lose the House, with the Senate now in play.

Even Senator Patty Murray (D), in the solidly blue state of Washington, is falling behind her challenger, Dino Rossi (R). (Rossi 48%, Murray 46%)

The Democrats now find themselves having to fight hard for Seats like Murray's that they used to take for granted.

"The Single Most Critical Senate Election In The United States"

Dick Morris weighs in on the upcoming Washington State Senate Race.

See: Commentator says Washington State Senate race critical for republicans

Morris says Rossi is a potential candidate to fill one of the ten seats republicans are aiming for.

"There's no point in building a nine-story building here, because if we only gain nine seats (Vice President Joe) Biden breaks the tie for the Democrats 50-50, but if we win 10, it's 51-49 and there's nothing he can do about it."

"I think it is the single most critical senate election in the United States because I believe that we're going to win the other nine and the question is, will this be the tenth?" Morris said.

Washington is a blue state. Our politics are dominated by King County (Seattle). Patty Murray will win in King County. The key will be by how much.

East of the Cascades, Washington is red. West, it is blue. West of Seattle, it is light blue, meaning that it could be swung.

I like Rossi.

This will be a fun race.

HT: (JCM -See #100) at Correspondence Committee

Democrat Patty Murray's Grim Poll Numbers Look Good For Republicans

Washington State's Senator, Patty Murray's poll numbers are looking bleak for her in the upcoming election.

See: Bad Polling News For Murray

SurveyUSA has surfaced to poll the Washington Senate race, and finds some unpleasant news for incumbent Patty Murray (4/19/10-4/22/10, 517 LV, MOE: +/- 4.4%). She fails to get above 46% against any of her opponents, and does so a polled electorate that looks an awful lot like the 2008 electorate.

Patty Murray (D) -- 42%

Dino Rossi (R) -- 52%


Patty Murray (D) -- 46%

Don Benton (R) -- 44%


Patty Murray (D) -- 46%

Clint Didier (R) -- 44%


Patty Murray (D) -- 45%

Chris Widener (R) -- 43%


Patty Murray (D) -- 45%

Paul Akers (R) -- 44%


Patty Murray (D) -- 45%

Art Coday (R) – 41%

It is still early in the game.

The MOE (Margin of Error) is an important number to look at. With this number at +/- 4.4%, only Dino Rossi has a clear lead. All of the others are too close to the MOE to be more than just hopeful.

Akers and Coday are running radio spots. If there are any TV spots out there, I have not seen them. (I don't have a TV.)

Akers' spots are pretty good. Coday's are OK.

If Rossi gets in the race, he has enough of a following to pretty much guarantee him the nomination. Rossi also looks good in front of the camera.