Is it all over for the Obama Campaign?

This was from a +4 Democrat poll.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the faceoff, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious.

"No presidential candidate has topped 60% in that question since it was first asked in 1984," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Boof!!!

This is not good for the President.

There were more Democrats than Republicans in the sample.

If the poll is to be believed, it is as if Romney won all of the Republicans, all of the Independents, and some of the Democrats.

This may well be the beginning of end of the Obama Campaign.

Debate Transcript: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/2012-presidential-debate-president-obama-and-mitt-romneys-remarks-in-denver-on-oct-3-running-transcript/2012/10/03/24d6eb6e-0d91-11e2-bd1a-b868e65d57eb_print.html

Do you think that the polls are biased in favor of Obama? If so, you are not alone.

From: Poll: Plurality say polls biased for Obama - The Hill (October 2nd, 2012)

A plurality of Americans and more than seven in 10 Republicans say pollsters are intentionally skewing results to benefit President Obama, according to a new poll released Tuesday.Some 42 percent of voters surveyed by Daily Kos and SEIU believe pollsters are manipulating their sample sizes to benefit the incumbent president, while 40 percent do not. An additional 18 percent said they were not sure. That's evidence that Republican claims that Democrats and minority voters are being oversampled in national polls could be resonating — and potentially undermining the momentum of the president's early lead. (More)

Read the whole article. It is worth it.

Of course, there is a little bit of irony here in that the article is based on polling data.

Who wrecked the UK?

A Reuters Headline that caught my eye this morning.

UK has changed for worse under Queen Elizabeth: poll

Sorry folks. You can't blame the demise of the UK on the Royals. You did it yourselves. You voted to have the state give you things for free. Now you are learning that "free stuff" is more often than not, worth exactly what you pay for it.

Socialism sucks. It destroys wealth. It destroys people. It destroys everything but want.

Should Doctors Be Allowed To Refuse Obama-Care Patients?

That is a question that will become a hot topic in our political culture very shortly.

See: U.S. Plans Stealth Survey on Access to Doctors

The administration says the survey will address a “critical public policy problem”: the increasing shortage of primary care doctors, including specialists in internal medicine and family practice. It will also try to discover whether doctors are accepting patients with private insurance while turning away those in government health programs that pay lower reimbursement rates.

Can the government force Doctors to accept Obama-Care patients? (What would or could stop them?)

Should the government force Doctors to accept Obama-Care patients? (Only thugs and thieves would say "Yes.")

The only alternative that the government has in getting Obama-Care patients to be readily accepted by Doctors is to have a payment schedule that is competitive with private insurers. That "jus' ain't a gonnah happen." The costs would be astronomical, just like all of the Obama-Care critics have been saying from day one. Forcing Doctors to accept Obama-Care patients would allow the leftist political class to pretend that their medical care scheme will work, at “cheaper” costs. (But only for a short time.) Of course, finding any doctor after that point will be a whole different problem.

Then the question that will be debated in the political sphere is whether or not government can prevent Doctors from quiting or retiring.

UPDATE [June 28, 2011 - 22:49]

See: Surprise: HHS drops plan to snoop on doctors

See: Program to Use Mystery Shoppers to Probe Doctors Scrapped

See: Kirk asks Obama administration to reconsider 'stealth' doctor survey

The Congressman has some interesting questions for Kathleen Sebelius. Among them:

2) Please provide records of how the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) of Chicago, Illinois, won a federally competitive bid to carry out this work.

It is an interesting question.

Hat Tip to Hot Air for the Update links.

Obama's Unbounce in the Polls

I think it is a problem of the messenger. Obama is just not credible as a hard-nosed warrior. We are now able to see in the Rasmussen polling data that Obama is not getting much if any kind of a boost from the news about the killing of Bin Laden.

From the Daily Presidential Tracking Poll done by Rasmussen.

Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove. Data collected following the news concerning bin Laden shows no significant change in the president’s overall approval rating. The president’s job approval ratings have been remarkably stable over the past year-and-a-half when viewed on a month-by-month basis.

I think that this post explains pretty well the weak (possibly non-existent) bump in the polls.

See: OBL's Death a Victory for the Adults

Because when you drill down, the death of bin Laden has nothing to do with the core beliefs of this President or the entire liberal movement.

Then there was the devastating revelation that it took Obama 16 hours to green-light the operation to kill Osama.

See: Obama took SIXTEEN HOURS to make up his mind about Bin Laden mission

The headline alone is enough. (The rest of the article should still be read.)
Sixteen hours? Obama had to have known that there was a very high probability that one day, the CIA was going to come to him with "Sir, We have Bin Laden in our gun-sights. What are your orders?"

That moment came. He was unprepared - as if he did not know what the right thing to do was.

That is not good. It reinforces the suspicion expressed in the post from the American Thinker.

Obama has come out of this looking like he was unprepared to give the go order but once having been brought around to do that, decided to turn the affair into a campaign event.

Osama Gives No Bump To Obama

See: Bin Laden Death Will Not Boost Obama: Expert

“The immediate reaction in the US notwithstanding, 'normal business' will soon be resumed in US politics. There will be no change on the fiscal/debt polarization and contrary to some commentators' reaction, definitely no election boost for Obama,” said Newton in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday.

Barbara Walters and many others in the media may think that the killing of Osama will boost Obama's re-election chances. There hopes are only a reflection of their fears. Obama is in so much trouble that they are desperate to grasp at anything.

There will be no lasting boost for Obama*. By election day, Osama will be all but forgotten.

The Democrats own the economy. The voters will be thinking about the lack of work and the rising price of gas and food when they think about Obama from now till election day. Osama will be an afterthought at most.

Obama, it's the economy, stupid.

~~~

* You can watch the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll as the numbers begin to show peoples opinion of the president in the days after the Osama killing. I expect a small bump, but one that is so small and temporary that it could easily be confused with noise. A week from now, Obama's numbers will be as bad as they are today, if not worse.

From the May 3rd Report

Daily updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were conducted before news was released about the death of Osama bin Laden. Thursday will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after that event. Results from the single night of data collected on Monday shows a modest improvement in the president’s Approval Index rating. However, there was no improvement in the president’s overall approval rating. Caution should always be used when interpreting a single night sample from a tracking poll.

Trump Wins, Obama Loses - The Obama Birth Certificate Circus

I will Give Trump a win on this. He has managed to get Obama to release his birth-certificate after having made a game of it for the entire length of his short Presidential career.

“We do not have time for this kind of silliness,” he said to reporters after the White House released a long-form copy of his birth certificate. Potential Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stirred up the controversy in recent weeks by demanding Obama prove he was born in Hawaii, not Kenya.

Obama, me-thinks though dost protest too much.

The whole of the birther circus was Obama's creation. He stoked and fuelled it from day one. He has no one to blame for it but himself. All that he had to do was release the damnable thing early on. Instead, he kept the controversy alive. Obama was in control of this issue the whole time. Everyone knows it.

Trump, calls Obama on this while taking credit for getting Obama to release the document.

"I'm taking great credit and you have to ask the president, 'why didn't he do this a long time ago? Why didn't he do it a long time ago?' When Hillary Clinton was asking, when everybody was asking, why didn't he do it? It's shocking. It's shocking," Donald Trump said at a press conference this morning on President Obama's birth certificate.

And like the proven and expert negotiator that Trump has proven himself to be in his business life, he has upped the stakes on Obama, demanding that Obama now release his college transcripts.

"I'd like to know how does he get into Harvard, how does he get into Colombia if he isn't a very good student," Donald Trump told the press this morning in New Hampshire.

"If he wants to release it that's fine, if he doesn't want to release it that's fine too. But the word is he wasn't a very good student," Trump added.

I don't think that Trump understands foreign policy very well. But it is pretty clear that he knows how to "steal the oxygen" in a political campaign. Trump is driving the campaign, Obama is reacting, and reacting badly.

Trump wins today. Obama loses.

If the vote ends up being between Obama the Community Organizer incumbent and Trump the Side-Show Pop-Icon challenger, I will hold my nose and vote for Trump.

Voting With Their Feet

See: Low-tax states will gain seats, high-tax states will lose them

The state and local tax burden is nearly a third lower in states with growing populations, ATR found. As a result, per capita government spending is also lower: $4,008 for states gaining congressional seats, $5,117 for states losing them.

And, as ATR notes, “in eight of ten losers, workers can be forced to join a union as a condition of employment. In 7 of the 8 gainers, workers are given a choice whether to join or contribute financially to a union.”

Imagine that.

Here in Washington State, William Gates Senior was one of the principle backers of an attempt to introduce an State Income Tax for Washingtonions. The measure was trounced. The Democrats lost on that one big-time.

See: Why Washington’s Tax on the Rich Failed

Passing I-1098 would have created the state’s first income tax. Polls and pundits said the main opposition to the tax was that voters feared the tax would start with the rich, and then quickly work its way down the income ladder.

“Citizens determined I-1098 was simply the first step toward establishing an income tax on all Washingtonians,” said Scott Stanzel, Defeat 1098 campaign manager, in a statement.

When I was asked about this by people that I know, I would in turn ask them if they really believed that the politicians would not extend the income tax to them. I told them that if they were in-favor of "taxing the rich", they also had to decide how much the trusted the politicians that they would be putting in charge of who was going to be taxed.

Rossi 48% - Murray 47% in latest Rasmussen Poll

Rasmussen is calling it a tie. The margin of error in the poll is (+/-) 4. This will be an election decided by turn-out, and heavily dependent on an honest counting of the ballots.

See: Election 2010: Washington Senate - Washington Senate: Rossi (R), Murray (D) Tied

Republican Dino Rossi and incumbent Democrat Patty Murray are separated by a single point in the U.S. Senate race in Washington with less than a week until Election Day.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Rossi picking up 48% of the vote, while Murray draws support from 47%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided.

There is also the 50% ("Incumbent Rule") for the Murray camp to worry about. While undecided number of 2% is small it can be the deciding factor in this race. If the Incumbent rule holds in this case, Rossi will be Washington State's next Senator.

Of course, all of this pre-election polling is only a good indicator of how an honestly conducted count of the vote might look like. Rossi has had trouble with the state engaging in some very strange ballot counting practices before. in his 2004 gubernatorial campaign Rossi won the Governor's race in the first count and the second in a recount, only to lose it to a strange as all hell third count. The 2004 gubernatorial count strongly suggests that an honest counting of ballots can be problematic, if not downright Chicago-esque here in Washington State.

This will be an election to keep an eye on.

Washington State Senate Race Now A Toss Up.

See: Election 2010: Washington Senate

Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray and Republican challenger Dino Rossi are back to a virtual tie in Washington’s race for U.S. Senate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Rossi picking up 48% support, while Murray earns 47% of the vote when leaners are included. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This race now moves back to a Toss-Up from Leans Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

We are about a month away from election day.

Washington State's Senate race will be decided on turn-out.

Can the Democrats get their people to the polls this November?

We shall see.

The Republicans are all fired up.

They will vote.

The Democrats . . .

Its not looking so good for the Democrats.

See: DC rally shows support for struggling Democrats

Organizers claimed they had as many participants as Beck's rally. But Saturday's crowds were less dense and didn't reach as far to the edges as they did during Beck's rally. The National Park Service stopped providing official crowd estimates in the 1990s.

In other words, the Democrat's rally was a flop.

Is Feingold Going To Lose It?

See: Rasmussen: Feingold now trailing by 7 in Wisconsin

After winning his primary to gain the Republican nomination to challenge Senator Russ Feingold, businessman and newcomer Ron Johnson also got a bump in the polls. The latest Rasmussen survey puts him ahead of the incumbent by seven, 51/44. But as with all surveys conducted in the immediate aftermath of a primary, some caution should be taken:

Go to HotAir to read the rest. Check out the link to the Rasmussen survey.

Illegal Immigrant Supporters Versus American Baseball Fans

You may have heard about the two Illegal Immigrant supporters that ran around Citi Field durring the New York Mets - Arizona Diamond Backs game.

Did you hear about the crowd's response?

See: Men Run Onto Citi Field With Mexican Flags

As the trespassers were taken from the field people in the stands started chanting "USA, USA."

Running around the ballpark with the Mexican Flag pretty much tells America where these Illegal Immigrant supporters heads are at.

The Partisan Dividing Line On Illegal Immigration

The question that will play out over the coming months will be: “Are the Democrats now the Party of Illegal Immigration?”

One Democrat candidate for Senate in California has charged that the “Democrat Elite” are manipulating today's May Day/Pro-Amnesty Protesters to push an unpopular reform package that includes Amnesty for Illegal aliens.

See his Press Release: Democrats Are Manipulating the Marchers

"There is not going to be an amnesty this year, or next year. The majority of the American people don't want it, for good reason. They want to secure the borders first," he said. "Amnesty before we secure the borders would only encourage yet another wave of illegals and hurt the wages of unskilled Americans (and legal immigrants)."

"But every time Democratic politicians in D.C. need to rev up the Latino vote, they dangle the false promise of an amnesty bill. At some point. Latino voters are going to realize they're being used."

Kaus is the only Democratic Senate candidate on the ballot to oppose amnesty proposals, even when they are packaged with enforcement measures and billed as "comprehensive reform." The incumbent, Barbara Boxer, supports "comprehensive reform" that includes a "path to citizenship" for illegals--i.e., amnesty.

"It's time Democrat politicians stopped holding enforcement measures hostage to their goal of amnesty--of giving citizenship to millions who are here illegally."

"We need to secure the borders first. Build the actual, physical fence that was supposed to be built. Extend E-verify or another effective means of checking immigration status at the time of employment. Create a system for monitoring visa overstays. Let the ACLU sue. Let the Chamber of Commerce sue. Let MALDEF sue. Then if the system survives those assaults, and works--actually stops illegal immigration and sends a signal to the world that the game has changed--then in a few years we can start to talk about amnesty."

"Until then it's a false promise, a fraud."

What Democrat Candidate for Senate, running in California of all places, would have the courage to say such things? Mickey Kaus. Yes, Mickey Kaus of Kausfiles.com. Mickey Kaus has also recently received the endorsement of Victor Davis Hanson.

An Ezra Klein piece in the Washington Post discusses this issue and the poll numbers.

See: Like it or not, the 2010 election is now (substantially) about immigration

The Democrats' immigration plan is based on a simple compromise: Restrictionists get increased border security, reformers get a path to legalization. And the compromise is in that order, too: The legalization path doesn't kick in until eight separate security benchmarks are met (head here for an excellent summary).

The question is whether anyone wants this compromise, at least right now. Consider this: The Arizona plan is popular. According to Gallup, 51 percent of Americans who have heard of the law support it. Only 39 percent oppose the legislation.

This is an issue the divides the public in lines that are very difficult to cross.

Have the Democrats become the Party of Illegal Imigration? With a few rare indivdual exceptions like Kaus and Hanson, the answer seems to be an obvious and overwhelming "Yes."

The elections will get very interesting. If you think that Amnesty is an issue that can wait until real and meaningful measures are in place to secure the borders and enforce our immigration laws, be prepared to be called a Racist by the welfare pimps and whores on the left. The Race-Card is the only card they have on this issue. They will play it for all that its worth.

Democrat Patty Murray's Grim Poll Numbers Look Good For Republicans

Washington State's Senator, Patty Murray's poll numbers are looking bleak for her in the upcoming election.

See: Bad Polling News For Murray

SurveyUSA has surfaced to poll the Washington Senate race, and finds some unpleasant news for incumbent Patty Murray (4/19/10-4/22/10, 517 LV, MOE: +/- 4.4%). She fails to get above 46% against any of her opponents, and does so a polled electorate that looks an awful lot like the 2008 electorate.

Patty Murray (D) -- 42%

Dino Rossi (R) -- 52%


Patty Murray (D) -- 46%

Don Benton (R) -- 44%


Patty Murray (D) -- 46%

Clint Didier (R) -- 44%


Patty Murray (D) -- 45%

Chris Widener (R) -- 43%


Patty Murray (D) -- 45%

Paul Akers (R) -- 44%


Patty Murray (D) -- 45%

Art Coday (R) – 41%

It is still early in the game.

The MOE (Margin of Error) is an important number to look at. With this number at +/- 4.4%, only Dino Rossi has a clear lead. All of the others are too close to the MOE to be more than just hopeful.

Akers and Coday are running radio spots. If there are any TV spots out there, I have not seen them. (I don't have a TV.)

Akers' spots are pretty good. Coday's are OK.

If Rossi gets in the race, he has enough of a following to pretty much guarantee him the nomination. Rossi also looks good in front of the camera.

The Myth Of The Pro-Life Democrat

Bart Stupak sucker-punched the pro-life movement.

In the end, the power that the Democrats would gain by giving themselves the ability to ration health care was more important to Congressman Stupak than was the pro-life stance that he had claimed to hold.

You can hear Stupak try to explain as Megyn Kelly rips him a new one.



He had 4 votes. Enough to kill the bill.

Stupak sold out. (and cheaply at that.)

See also: Schlafly: Health Care Vote Set to Expose the Myth of the 'Pro-Life Democrat'

"Any formerly pro-life Democrat who casts a 'Yes' vote for this Senate health care bill tonight will be forever remembered as being among the deciding votes which facilitated the largest expansion of abortion services since Roe v. Wade."

"Mr. Stupak and his Democrat followers have now clarified that you cannot be pro-life and be a Democrat. If abortion was truly their biggest issue, they wouldn't willfully align themselves with the Party of Death."

I think that Phylis Schafly makes a strong argument. When tested, Stupak valued life less then he valued the Democrat Party's accrual of political power.

Fighting Back

Two things to do without delay.

1. Send a Republican a campaign contribution. It does not have to be a large amount. It just has to be something.

I will be sending some money to SarahPAC tonight.

2. Send a Thank You email to everyone that voted against that abomination tonight, even the Democrats that voted against it.

These people need our thanks. They fought the valiant fight.

The Count

FINAL VOTE RESULTS FOR ROLL CALL 165

H R 3590 RECORDED VOTE 21-Mar-2010 10:49 PM
QUESTION: On Motion to Concur in Senate Amendments
BILL TITLE: Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act

Democratic
Ayes 219, Noes 34

Republican
Ayes 0, Noes 178

TOTALS
Ayes 219, Noes 212

For the full list of names, See: FINAL VOTE RESULTS FOR ROLL CALL 165

Rationing Health-Care By A Procedural Slight Of Hand.

By hook or by crook, the left-wing extremist that run the Democrat Party are going to get their "Health-Care" bill onto the President's desk one way or the other. The Slaughter Trick is beyond the pale. They will set them selves up to ration your healthcare if they have to rape the Constitution to do it.

See: House may try to pass Senate health-care bill without voting on it

Instead, Pelosi (D-Calif.) would rely on a procedural sleight of hand: The House would vote on a more popular package of fixes to the Senate bill; under the House rule for that vote, passage would signify that lawmakers "deem" the health-care bill to be passed.

The tactic -- known as a "self-executing rule" or a "deem and pass" -- has been commonly used, although never to pass legislation as momentous as the $875 billion health-care bill. It is one of three options that Pelosi said she is considering for a late-week House vote, but she added that she prefers it because it would politically protect lawmakers who are reluctant to publicly support the measure.

We are down to the wire. Now is the time for you to do something.

Here are two toll-free phone numbers to the Capital Switchboard.

Try these ones first
877 762 8762, 866-877-4455 (Should work for both the House and Senate.)

800 965 4701 (House)
800 828 0498 (Senate)

As always, be civil and polite.

When you call these numbers, you will reach an operator. Ask the operator to transfer you to your congressman's or Senator's office. You will need to know your critter's name. Don't rely on the operator to know who your congress critter is. If you don't know, try this website. Enter your zip-code and your State. It will give you your congress critter's name and contact information.

This is important.

It is a game changing.

This is a watershed moment in our nation's history.


~

And here is one that needs to hear from all of us.

Nancy Pelosi - Phone (202) 225-4965, Fax (202) 225-8259

Democrats Screwed If They Do And Screwed If They Don't

There is an important article in the Friday edition of the Washington Post.

Its available on-line now. Most every Democrat in congress will read it. You should too.

The article is written by two long time pollsters for the Democrats. It is an oracle of doom.

See: If Democrats ignore health-care polls, midterms will be costly

First, the battle for public opinion has been lost. Comprehensive health care has been lost. If it fails, as appears possible, Democrats will face the brunt of the electorate's reaction. If it passes, however, Democrats will face a far greater calamitous reaction at the polls. Wishing, praying or pretending will not change these outcomes.

Yep. The Democrats are screwed blue and true.

I did not think it possible for the Democrats to make such a disaster of things. They have made such asses of themselves that they now risk repeating the same congressional blowout that Clinton suffered after his over-reaching attempt to socialize health-care. It was a lesson that the Democrats did not heed. It may well be one that they can not fully grasp. They will blame others. Again.

Patrick H. Caddell and Douglas E. Schoen are very worried that the Democrats will suffer an “unmitigated disaster” in the midterms. They argue their case ably and well.

The links in the article are worth looking at too.

Bad CPAC Kookiness

The straw poll results out of the CPAC meeting are a bit of bad news.

See: Rep. Ron Paul surprise winner of CPAC presidential straw poll

Ron Paul, the isolationist nutburger, won the Presidential straw poll. Romney placed second with Palin showing at third.

Ron Paul is not acceptable.

No fucking way.

What an embarrassment.