With a philosophical flourish Cato throws himself upon his sword; I quietly take to the ship. There is nothing surprising in this. If they but knew it, almost all men in their degree, some time or other, cherish very nearly the same feelings towards the ocean with me. - Herman Melville > Moby Dick
PRINCETON, NJ -- The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.
The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
Every Republican vote is an essential vote.
This will be an election decided by turnout.
Even Democrats in the safest districts are now in close races.
The most notable results in the poll came in the question that asked “If the election for the United States Congress were today and the candidates were Republican Doug Cloud and Democrat Norm Dicks, for whom would you vote?” The answer options were “definitely for Cloud, leaning for Cloud, definitely for Dicks, leaning for Dicks, and not sure”. Doug Cloud received a combined 609 votes for “definitely for” and “leaning for” while Dicks only received 558 for the 2 answers. 95 were still unsure.
It is free. You can install it for free on a machine running a Microsoft OS. It also works on Linux and other non-Microsoft OS's. (Microsoft Office, not so much.) If your customers are still stuck with the Microsoft products, Open Office can save files to the Microsoft formats.
Ubuntu is pretty good, and its free. Linux used to be a pain in the ass to use. It was geekware, built by geeks for geeks. Now it is easy enough for anyone to use.
Linux is now no more difficult and no more buggy then the Microsoft products. And you don't have to fight the malware and virus battles that are de rigueur with Micorsoft products. Overall, I have much fewer problems with my Linux machines then I do with my Microsoft machines.
Rasmussen is calling it a tie. The margin of error in the poll is (+/-) 4. This will be an election decided by turn-out, and heavily dependent on an honest counting of the ballots.
Republican Dino Rossi and incumbent Democrat Patty Murray are separated by a single point in the U.S. Senate race in Washington with less than a week until Election Day.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Rossi picking up 48% of the vote, while Murray draws support from 47%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided.
There is also the 50% ("Incumbent Rule") for the Murray camp to worry about. While undecided number of 2% is small it can be the deciding factor in this race. If the Incumbent rule holds in this case, Rossi will be Washington State's next Senator.
Of course, all of this pre-election polling is only a good indicator of how an honestly conducted count of the vote might look like. Rossi has had trouble with the state engaging in some very strange ballot counting practices before. in his 2004 gubernatorial campaign Rossi won the Governor's race in the first count and the second in a recount, only to lose it to a strange as all hell third count. The 2004 gubernatorial count strongly suggests that an honest counting of ballots can be problematic, if not downright Chicago-esque here in Washington State.
LAS VEGAS -- Some voters in Boulder City complained on Monday that their ballot had been cast before they went to the polls, raising questions about Clark County's electronic voting machines.
Voter Joyce Ferrara said when they went to vote for Republican Sharron Angle, her Democratic opponent, Sen. Harry Reid's name was already checked.
Ferrara said she wasn't alone in her voting experience. She said her husband and several others voting at the same time all had the same thing happen.
"Something's not right," Ferrara said. "One person that's a fluke. Two, that's strange. But several within a five minute period of time -- that's wrong."
Watch your vote.
They will take that away from you too if they get half the chance.
Fight.
[Update - 11:27 am]
And in North Carolina, more strange Democrat vote fraud.
In North Carolina, an incident was reported in which a voter tried to vote a straight Republican ticket and instead the voting machine indicated that a straight Democratic ticket was voted.
"Sam Laughinghouse of New Bern said he pushed the button to vote Republican in all races, but the voting machine screen displayed a ballot with all Democrats checked. He cleared the screen and tried again with the same result, he said. Then he asked for and received help from election staff.
"'They pushed it twice and the same thing happened,' Laughinghouse said. 'That was four times in a row. The fifth time they pushed it and the Republicans came up and I voted.'"
With an important, possibly history-making election drawing nigh, the idea of voter fraud is being raised on talk radio and other venues. The fact that the current president learned politics in the rough and tumble atmosphere of Chicago, a place known for ballot manipulation, does not exactly assuage suspicions.
Malfunction my ass.
The Democrats need to understand that if they bugger the elections to the point that nobody believes in them anymore, things will get ugly.
[Update 10:42 pm]
So lets take the above two stories and look at a tie-in.
Now the county voting technicians aren't unique here -- many of Clark County's employees are also represented by the SEIU. But it is worth mentioning, the SEIU is hyperpoliticized and has seen its fair share of corruption. (It certainly seems more questionable than Diebold, the voting machine manufacturer with Republican ties that was at the center of many conspiracy theories on the left during the Bush administration.)
Unions increasingly have a major financial stake in election outcomes, both as a matter of their own election expenditures, and as a function of what they stand to gain if their legislative agenda is enacted. Should they really be responsible for tabulating the votes? That's certainly something voters ought to think long and hard about.
“Republicans should have 48 seats [after the elections next month], Democrats 47, and five seats could slide either way,” said Rasmussen in his banquet address at the Western Conservative Political Action Conference. He was referring to seats in five states in which the Senate race this year he considers too close to call: California, Illinois, Washington, West Virginia, and Nevada (or “that mudwrestling contest,” as Rasmussen described the race between Republican Sharron Angle and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid).
That is bad news for long time incumbent, Patty Murray. She has been in office since 1988. That is long time. A very long time. (Think back, way back, all the way back to when George Bush Sr. beat Michael Dukakis.)
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Washington shows Rossi with 49% of the vote, while Murray’s support stands at 46%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
What should especially worry Murray is the Incumbent 50% Rule. This rule says that if the incumbent polls bellow 50% in the poll closest to the election, the "undecideds" will over 80% of the time, break for the challenger. (Go Rossi!)
Cray says she is currently compiling data from each of Illinois' jurisdictions to determine which were compliant and which were delinquent. Cray said it's possible the ballots may not be counted because the state was tardy in sending them out.
Illinois was required to have all of its absentee ballots mailed by Sept. 18, the national deadline. Election officials have until Nov. 15 to count the absentee ballots, which must be postmarked by midnight Nov. 1 to be eligible.
On the sidelines, there is very little that individual voters like you and I can do to help move our nation in the right direction. So much of what happens in the political sphere that will shape our future happens in political campaigns like Dino Rossi's.
We can help.
We can help a candidate like Dino Rossi take his message to the voters by sending him and his campaign a small amount of money. We can do this much. If we are serious about what we believe, we must do at least this much.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray and Republican challenger Dino Rossi are back to a virtual tie in Washington’s race for U.S. Senate.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Rossi picking up 48% support, while Murray earns 47% of the vote when leaners are included. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
This race now moves back to a Toss-Up from Leans Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.
We are about a month away from election day.
Washington State's Senate race will be decided on turn-out.
Can the Democrats get their people to the polls this November?
Organizers claimed they had as many participants as Beck's rally. But Saturday's crowds were less dense and didn't reach as far to the edges as they did during Beck's rally. The National Park Service stopped providing official crowd estimates in the 1990s.
Bringing in a clown to testify on the highly charged issue of illegal immigration is the Democrat's way of expressing contempt for those Americans that want our immigration laws enforced.
WASHINGTON – Taking his blowhard comedy act to Congress, Stephen Colbert told lawmakers that a day picking beans alongside illegal immigrants convinced him that farm work is "really, really hard."
"It turns out — and I did not know this — most soil is at ground level," Colbert testified Friday. Also, "It was hotter than I like to be."
Nancy Pelosi thought that bringing in a clown to testify before congress was not only appropriate, "It was great."
After winning his primary to gain the Republican nomination to challenge Senator Russ Feingold, businessman and newcomer Ron Johnson also got a bump in the polls. The latest Rasmussen survey puts him ahead of the incumbent by seven, 51/44. But as with all surveys conducted in the immediate aftermath of a primary, some caution should be taken:
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 48% of Likely Voters would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. The survey data was collected on the seven days ending Sunday, September 5, 2010.
This matches the largest advantage ever measured for the Republicans. Three weeks ago, the GOP also held a 12-point lead.
Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year. During 2010, the GOP edge has never fallen below five points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
Those are some pretty grim numbers for the Democrats. This November is looking like it will be a bloodbath at the ballot box.
Two years ago, the Democrats had won everything. Now, as the chill of the approaching autumn can be felt in the evening air, the Democrats find themselves about to lose the House, with the Senate now in play.
Even Senator Patty Murray (D), in the solidly blue state of Washington, is falling behind her challenger, Dino Rossi (R). (Rossi 48%, Murray 46%)
The Democrats now find themselves having to fight hard for Seats like Murray's that they used to take for granted.
Here's one of the big questions, really, one to chew on over the weekend, one that's asked a lot around this town. How could a bunch of people who ran such a brilliant campaign be doing such a lousy job at the politics of governing?
The answer is actually very simple.
Obama and his team have successfully rammed through a number of measures through the congress that would, and will, fundamentally change the nature of our government and our relationship with it.
Obama's plummeting popularity is a consequence of his political success.
Confusing President Obama's popularity with his political success is a mistake. He has been very successful. Obama is very unpopular now because of his political successes.
Dekker wants to break the record for the youngest world solo sail set in May by Australian teenager Jessica Watson. Watson completed a non-stop, unassisted round-the-world trip a few days before her 17th birthday.
Dekker turns 17 on September 20, 2012, allowing her a little over two years to complete the trip, during which she intends to stop at several ports along the way.
Dekker has said her route from Portugal will take her across the Atlantic Ocean and into the Pacific via the Panama Canal. She plans to stop at the Galapagos islands before heading to Australia, Thailand and through the pirate-infested Gulf of Aden back to Europe.
This is not the same race as Jessica Watson's. It is similar, but it is not the same.
Jessica Watson sailed The Three Capes route. Laura Dekker is sailing the equatorial route. Another difference is that Jessica Watson sailed non-stop and Laura Dekker will make port in several places.
I am less comfortable with Laura Dekker's adventure then I was with Jessica Watson's.
Laura Dekker is very young. Many people will object on that alone. While I find her age to be a little worrisome, I am more concerned about the route that she will travel. Jessica Watson traveled south and sailed around the three Capes, Cape Agulhas, Cape Leeuwin and Cape Horn).
Where Watson had to brave stormy seas, Dekker will have to brave filthy pirates. I would prefer storms over pirates. Where as the sea and the storms are indifferent and lack malice, pirates are the scum of the planet. Pirates are malice.
Training can solve most problems associated with age, storms and seas. Pirates are different. With Pirates, age becomes a problem.
Laura Dekker will be at sea for over a year. She will travel around the equator and pass through some of the most pirate infested waters of the world. She will avoid the physical dangers of the three capes. Hopefully she will be able to avoid the Pirates as well.
Often in politics, the wrong solution to a issue is sought to solve a problem that the law already provides a workable remedy.
In an attempt to discourage illegal immigrants from exploiting their children as a means to remain in the US, Republican politicians are suggesting that it is time to revise the 14th Amendment of the constitution to disallow birth-right citizenship.
Birth-right citizenship is being exploited. The numbers are truly staggering.
In Texas, between 60,000 to 65,000 babies achieve U.S. citizenship annually by being born in the state's hospitals, according to a tally released by the state's Health and Human Services Commission. Last year, such births represented almost 16 percent of the total births statewide.
Between 2001 and 2009, births to illegal immigrant women totaled 542,152 in Texas alone.
Thats just Texas.
It would be interesting to know what the national numbers are.
The 14th Amendment is not the problem. The lack of will at the federal level to enforce our immigration laws is the problem.
If Illegal aliens have a baby in the US, fine. The children may have US citizenship. The parents still do not. The parents still should be made to leave the US. The children may return to the US at a later time or even be allowed to remain with legal US residents. The Illegal parents still MUST leave.
If the law was enforced, there would be no anchor-baby problem. The law is not enforced, so anchor-babies are exploited.
“What’s very troubling is the fact that at a time when we in law enforcement and our state need help from the federal government, instead of sending help they put up billboard-size signs warning our citizens to stay out of the desert in my county because of dangerous drug and human smuggling and weapons and bandits and all these other things and then, behind that, they drag us into court with the ACLU,” Babeu said.
What is the Obama Administration's goal? Why do they refuse to meaningful defend the border and why do the want to prevent the States from doing the job the Federal Government refuses to do?
Could it be that the Obama Administration does not think that the border should be effectively closed to illegal immigrants?
On the day parts of Arizona's immigration law, SB 1070, went into effect, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is in the news for another reason: there's a price on his head - allegedly offered by a Mexican drug cartel.
This is not the first instance of a Mexican Drug Cartel threatening to kill US Law Enforcement Officers.
A Mexican drug cartel has threatened Nogales police officers, saying they will be targeted for retribution if they conduct off-duty drug busts.
Nogales Police Chief Jeffrey Kirkham told the Nogales International on Friday that the threats stemmed from an incident approximately two weeks ago, when off-duty officers surprised marijuana smugglers while riding horseback in an unincorporated border area east of town.
The officers seized part of the drug load, and the smugglers were able to flee back into Mexico with the other part.
“As a result of that,” Kirkham said, “our officers have received threats from the cartel that they are to look the other way if they are off-duty, or they will be targeted by a sniper or by other means.”
In our nation's history, we have dealt with a similar problem with Mexico.
It resulted in what the history books call "The Punitive Expedition" or "The Poncho Villa Expedition."
In late 1915 - early 1916, Poncho Villa began a campaign of killing Americans living and working in Northern Mexico. It escalated from there to a cross border war into New Mexico.
Poncho Villa's raid into Columbus New Mexico, killing 18 and wounding 8, sparked a military response from the US.
A General Pershing type incursion into Mexico to hunt down Mexican Narco-Terrorist may have to be repeated if the Democrat led US Government is unable or unwilling to secure our borders with Mexico. This would not be a good war, though it may become a necessary one.
The Democrats in Washington D.C. need to recognize the risks they are running by refusing to look at the cross border threats from Mexican gangsters as serious threats to our national security.
So far to date, the most aggressive and forward posture that the Obama Administration has initiated to contain the violence that is spilling across the border from Mexico, is to put up signs in the desert on the American side of the border, warning Americans to stay out of threatened US land. Tactically, Obama has implemented a policy of retreat.
The signs were posted over a month after a Pinal County Sheriff's Deputy was shot by suspected drug traffickers while patrolling the area around the junction of Interstate 8 and Arizona Highway 84. Last week, two bodies belived to those of drug mules were found shot to death in the same area where the deputy was ambushed. Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu said in an interview Tuscon's KGUN TV that the cartels are in increasing control of parts of Arizona, including Pinal County.
As unpleasant as it may be for Obama and the Democrats that control Washington D.C. to consider, they have to secure the US border with Mexico. If they fail to do so, they will be responsible for having failed to prevent a war that we will end up having to fight on our southern border.
[Fenway's Not Another New England Sports Blog! has more on the topic of the Mexican Narco-insurgency and the illegal immigration issue. Its worth taking a look at.]
